We demonstrate that predictable uninformed cash flows forecast market and individual stock
returns. Buying pressure from dividend payments (announced weeks prior) predicts higher value weighted market returns, four times greater on the top quintile of payment days than the lowest. This effect holds internationally, varies with reinvestment intensity, and increases with high VIX. Selling pressure leads predictable high stock expense firms to have lower returns when selling restrictions lift, by 117 bp in four days. We estimate market-level price multipliers of 1.5 to 2.3. These results suggest price pressure is a widespread result of flows, rather than an anomaly.
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